Can these probabilities tell me what the next card will be?
No. They are long-run frequencies. The next card out of a shuffled shoe is as close to random as a casino can make it, and no pattern in previous hands predicts it.
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Blackjack Probability Cheat Sheet
Updated
You do not need to compute probabilities at the table; the basic strategy chart has done that for you. But knowing a few of the underlying numbers makes the chart's odd-looking plays feel sensible, and that makes them easier to follow when a hand feels wrong. This sheet collects the figures that matter most for a multi-deck game.
All numbers are approximate long-run frequencies for a 4- to 8-deck shoe. They describe what happens over thousands of hands, not what will happen on the next card.
How often the dealer busts, by upcard
The dealer busts about 35 percent of the time with a 2, 37 percent with a 3, 40 percent with a 4, 42 percent with a 5, and 42 percent with a 6. Those five cards are why you stand on stiff hands and double aggressively against a weak dealer: more than a third of the time the dealer loses on their own.
With a 7 the bust rate drops to about 26 percent, with an 8 to 24 percent, a 9 to 23 percent, a 10 to 21 percent, and an ace to about 17 percent (under S17). The ace is the dealer's best card by a wide margin, which is why insurance exists and why soft 18 against an ace is only a stand, never a double.
How often you bust when you hit
Hitting hard 12 busts about 31 percent of the time; 13 about 39 percent; 14 about 56 percent; 15 about 58 percent; 16 about 62 percent. Hard 17 busts 69 percent of the time, which is why 17 always stands even though it is only a mediocre hand.
Soft hands never bust on the next card. That single fact explains the whole soft-total chart: hitting soft 17 costs nothing in bust risk, while hitting hard 17 costs 69 percent.
Starting hands and naturals
You are dealt a natural about 4.75 percent of the time, once every 21 hands. The dealer gets one at the same rate. Both at once happens about 0.2 percent of the time, a push. Your first two cards are a pair about 6 percent of the time, a soft hand about 11 percent, and a stiff hard 12 to 16 about 38 percent of the time.
Those frequencies are why hard totals should be learned first: nearly two in five hands start in the stiff zone where hit-stand errors live, while only one hand in sixteen is a pair.
Expected outcome by matchup
Against a dealer 10, a hard 16 played correctly (hit) still loses about 54 cents per dollar. Against a dealer 6, a hard 11 doubled wins about 67 cents per dollar of the original bet. Those two figures bracket the game: your worst common spot loses just over half a bet, your best wins two thirds of one.
Hard 20 wins about 85 percent of the time against a mixed set of upcards; hard 19 about 75 percent; hard 18 about 60 percent; hard 17 about 45 percent. A made 17 is a slight loser, which is why standing on 17 is about minimising damage rather than expecting to win.
Dealer Bust Probability By Upcard (Multi-Deck, S17)
| Dealer Upcard | Bust Probability | Strategy Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | About 35% | Stand on 13-16; hit 12 |
| 3 | About 37% | Stand on 13-16; hit 12; double 9 |
| 4 | About 40% | Stand on 12-16; double 9, soft 15-18 |
| 5 | About 42% | Stand on 12-16; double most 9s, 10s, soft 13-18 |
| 6 | About 42% | Most aggressive column: double and split widely |
| 7 | About 26% | Hit stiff hands; double 10 and 11 |
| 8 | About 24% | Hit stiff hands; double 10 and 11 |
| 9 | About 23% | Hit stiff hands; double 10 and 11; hit soft 18 |
| 10 | About 21% | Hit stiff hands; double 11 only |
| Ace | About 17% | Hit stiff hands; stand soft 18; decline insurance |
FAQ
Why does the dealer bust most often with a 5 or 6, not a 2?
With a 5 or 6 the dealer's most likely two-card total is a stiff 15 or 16, which must be hit and busts often. With a 2 the dealer's likely totals are lower and have more room to draw safely.
Do these numbers change with the number of decks?
Slightly. Single-deck games have a marginally higher natural rate and slightly different bust rates. For four decks or more the figures above are accurate to within about one percentage point.
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